贝•布托之后的巴基斯坦

前总理贝•布托的遇刺使得巴基斯坦国内的骚乱状态进一步升级。作为这个国家支持者最为众多的政党领袖,贝•布托在很大程度上是凌驾于巴基斯坦的民族和党派分歧之上的。今年10月贝•布托流放归来被看作是挽救这个国家于危险分裂的曙光;而她的遇刺则让那些美好的愿望再次破灭。佩尔韦兹•穆沙拉夫总统必须立即采取行动了——其中最为首要的,是他必须立即成立一个民族团结政府——防止巴基斯坦从此陷入四分五裂。

人民党将参加一月份的议会选举的决定,不啻为贝•布托抛给穆沙拉夫的一个救生索,要知道总统先生已经被国内的多起叛乱、全国性的恐怖主义威胁和他本人的合法性问题困扰很久了。穆沙拉夫和他在华盛顿的支持者们都希望,贝•布托领导的主流政党参与该选举的举动可以就此结束巴基斯坦的治理危机,并使民众支持政府对塔利班和基地组织采取果断的对抗行动。

然而现在看来,选举很可能要被推迟。不错,如果巴基斯坦的局势进一步恶化,穆沙拉夫完全可以像他在十一月份所做的那样,再次被迫宣布国家进入紧急状态。巴基斯坦的各个城市都出现了多起关于暴力和骚乱的报道。卡拉奇这个多民族聚居的都市很可能要陷入全面的无政府状态,上世纪90年代,发生在该城市的贝•布托的政党和一个当地少数民族政党——该政党现已是穆沙拉夫的同盟——之间的暴力冲突曾使数千人丧生。

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