La agenda de la eurozona en el año 2013

PARIS – Los líderes de la Unión Europea concluyeron el año 2012 con un acuerdo histórico que coloca a todos los bancos de la eurozona bajo un supervisor único. Sin embargo, las difíciles negociaciones que llevaron al acuerdo eclipsaron el  reciente informe del presidente del Consejo Europeo Herman Van Rompuy titulado “Hacia una verdadera unión económica y monetaria” (Towards a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union),  el cual insta a que la unidad vaya mucho más allá de una unión bancaria. Aunque “no se cerró ninguna puerta”, en palabras del presidente de la Comisión Europea José Manuel Barroso, los líderes de la UE han rechazado claramente, al menos por ahora, la celebración de un debate serio acerca de una integración más profunda.

El informe de Van Rompuy plantea una pregunta fundamental: ¿qué factores impiden que la eurozona funcione como todos desearíamos? Responder a esta pregunta requiere, en primer lugar, la comparación de las dinámicas que estuvieron en juego durante la primera década del euro, 1999-2009, periodo en el que la eurozona ostensiblemente tuvo un buen desempeño, con las de los últimos tres años, mismos que se vieron afectado por la crisis.

En un principio, la eurozona parecía funcionar como una verdadera unión monetaria: se aceleró la integración de los mercados de capitales; aumentó la actividad transfronteriza; y disminuyó el tamaño de la brecha de ingresos per cápita entre los países miembros. No obstante, a diferencia de lo que ocurre en una unión monetaria completa, como por ejemplo la de los Estados Unidos, los miembros de la eurozona retuvieron una total soberanía financiera, es decir, ellos controlaban todas las palancas de la política macroeconómica de sus respectivos países.

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