A agenda da zona euro em 2013

PARIS – os líderes da União Europeia concluíram o ano de 2012 com um acordo histórico que coloca todos os bancos da zona euro sob a vigilância de um único supervisor. Mas as difíceis negociações que conduziram ao acordo ofuscaram o recente relatório do presidente do Conselho Europeu, Herman Van Rompuy, com vista a uma União Económica e Monetária Genuína, que apela a uma união que vai além da união bancária. Embora “nenhuma porta estivesse fechada”, nas palavras do presidente da Comissão Europeia, José Manuel Barroso, os dirigentes da UE recusaram manifestamente, pelo menos por agora, manter uma discussão séria sobre uma integração mais profunda.

O relatório de Van Rompuy levanta uma questão fundamental: Que factores impedem a zona euro de funcionar como todos desejariam? Responder a esta pergunta requer, sobretudo, comparar a dinâmica que existia na primeira década do euro, 1999-2009, altura em que a zona euro teve aparentemente um bom desempenho, com a dinâmica dos últimos três anos perturbados pela crise.

Em primeiro lugar, a zona euro parecia funcionar como uma verdadeira união monetária: a integração do mercado de capitais foi acelerada, as actividades transfronteiriças aumentaram; e a diferença do rendimento per capita entre os países membros diminuiu. Mas, ao contrário de uma união monetária completa, como a dos Estados Unidos, os membros da zona euro mantiveram a total soberania financeira, o que significa que eles controlavam todas as alavancas da política macroeconómica.

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