欧元区的2013年日程

巴黎—欧盟领导人以一项里程碑式的协议作为2012年收官——所有欧元区银行都将置于单一监督者的监管之下。但协议谈判过程之艰难让欧洲理事会主席范龙佩的最新报告《通向真正的经济和货币联盟》(Towards a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union)黯然失色。这份报告呼吁形成远远超越银行联盟的统一。尽管用欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐的话说,“大门仍然开着”,但欧盟领导人显然拒绝了就加深一体化进行严肃讨论的建议,至少在目前是如此。

范龙佩的报告引出了一个根本性问题:什么因素使欧元区不能像所有人期许的那样运转?要回答这一问题,最重要的是比较欧元的第一个十年——1999—2009年间起作用的动态。在这段时间中,乍一看欧元表现出色。但在过去三年中,欧元因危机遭受重创。

首先,欧元区似乎如一个真正的货币联盟在运转:资本市场一体化加速;跨境活动增加;成员国之间人均GDP差距减小。但是,和完整的货币联盟(比如美国)不同,欧元区成员国保留了完整的财政主权,这意味着它们控制着所有的宏观经济政策决定权。

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