Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

Die gar nicht so hohen Kosten des Brexit

BRÜSSEL – Das Votum des Vereinigten Königreichs für den Austritt aus der Europäischen Union ist dabei, sich zum größten Nichtereignis des Jahres zu entwickeln. Abgesehen von einem schwächeren Pfund und niedrigeren Zinssätzen im Vereinigten Königreich hat das Referendum bisher kaum bleibende Auswirkungen gehabt. Die Finanzmärkte wackelten nach dem Referendum für ein paar Wochen, aber haben sich inzwischen erholt. Bei den Konsumausgaben hat es keine Veränderungen gegeben. Überraschender noch: Die Investitionen verharren auf demselben Niveau, und das trotz Unsicherheit über die künftigen Handelsbeziehungen Großbritanniens zur EU. Wurden die Kosten des Brexit übertrieben?

Eher nicht. Tatsächlich könnte das Vereinigte Königreich durch den Brexit durchaus die prognostizierten 2-3% vom BIP verlieren. Doch es ist der Austritt aus dem Binnenmarkt, der diese Verluste mit sich bringen wird, nicht das anfängliche Votum, diesen zu verlassen. Und die Verluste könnten sich über einen langen Zeitraum ereignen. Erweist sich der Austritt als zehnjähriger Prozess, würden die Verluste über diesen Zeitraum verteilt anfallen und das Vereinigte Königreich durchschnittlich etwa 0,2-0,3% vom BIP pro Jahr kosten.

Das könnte für das Vereinigte Königreich eine sehr gute Nachricht sein. Mit einer schwächeren Währung wird das Land von einem Anstieg seiner Wettbewerbsfähigkeit profitieren, der diese schrittweisen Verluste und die vorübergehende Investitionsschwäche, die dazukommen dürfte, ausgleichen könnte.

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