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代价不那么高的英国脱欧

布鲁塞尔—英国投票“脱离”欧盟即将成为今年最大的“小事”。除了英镑贬值和英国利率下调,公投并未产生多少持续影响。金融市场在公投后跌了几周,但此后就恢复了。消费支出岿然不动。更令人惊奇的是,投资也相当稳健,尽管存在英国与欧盟未来贸易关系的不确定性。英国退出的代价是否被夸张了?

不尽然。事实上,英国最终很可能如预测那样因为脱欧而损失2—3%的GDP。但退出单一市场,而不是起先的脱欧投票,带来了这些损失,并且损失的持续时间可能很长。如果脱欧最后演变成一个长达十年的过程,损失可以在此期间逐渐吸收,平均每年造成0.2—0.3%的GDP损失。

这对英国来说可能是极好的消息。英镑贬值后,英国将受益于出口竞争力的增加,出口竞争力的增加可以抵消渐增的损失和可能产生的暂时性投资低迷。

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