Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

代价不那么高的英国脱欧

布鲁塞尔—英国投票“脱离”欧盟即将成为今年最大的“小事”。除了英镑贬值和英国利率下调,公投并未产生多少持续影响。金融市场在公投后跌了几周,但此后就恢复了。消费支出岿然不动。更令人惊奇的是,投资也相当稳健,尽管存在英国与欧盟未来贸易关系的不确定性。英国退出的代价是否被夸张了?

不尽然。事实上,英国最终很可能如预测那样因为脱欧而损失2—3%的GDP。但退出单一市场,而不是起先的脱欧投票,带来了这些损失,并且损失的持续时间可能很长。如果脱欧最后演变成一个长达十年的过程,损失可以在此期间逐渐吸收,平均每年造成0.2—0.3%的GDP损失。

这对英国来说可能是极好的消息。英镑贬值后,英国将受益于出口竞争力的增加,出口竞争力的增加可以抵消渐增的损失和可能产生的暂时性投资低迷。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/7I0Ml4G/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.