El mundo del G-Cero

NUEVA YORK – Vivimos en un mundo en el que, en teoría, la gobernanza económica y política global está en manos del G-20. No obstante, en la práctica no hay un liderazgo global y existe una desorganización y desacuerdos graves entre los miembros del G-20 sobre la política monetaria y fiscal, los tipos de cambio y los desequilibrios globales, el cambio climático, el comercio, la estabilidad financiera, el sistema monetario internacional y la seguridad energética, alimentaria y global. En efecto, las potencias principales ahora consideran estos temas como juegos de suma cero y no como juegos de suma positiva. Así pues, el nuestro es el mundo del G-Cero.

En el siglo XIX, la potencia hegemónica estable era el Reino Unido, y el imperio británico imponía los bienes públicos globales del libre comercio, la libre circulación de capitales, el patrón oro y la libra británica como la principal moneda de reserva global. En el siglo XX, los Estados Unidos asumieron ese papel e impusieron su Pax Americana para dar seguridad a la mayor parte de Europa occidental, Asia, el Medio Oriente y América Latina. Los Estados Unidos también dominaron las instituciones de Bretton Woods – el Fondo Monetario Internacional, el Banco Mundial y, más tarde, la Organización Mundial del Comercio—para determinar las normas comerciales y financieras globales, con el dólar como principal moneda de reserva.

Sin embargo, hoy el “imperio” estadounidense está en relativa decadencia y tiene muchas presiones a nivel fiscal. Además, la potencia en expansión, China, que no es una democracia liberal, está aplicando un modelo de capitalismo de Estado y se está aprovechando del sistema global actual – en términos de comercio, tipos de cambio, cambio climático– en vez de participar en la provisión de bienes públicos comunes. Y, si bien hay un descontento general con el dólar estadounidense, el renminbi chino aún dista de convertirse en una de las principales monedas de reserva, ya no se diga en la dominante.

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