Du G20 au J0

NEW-YORK – Nous vivons dans un monde dont la gouvernance est en principe entre les mains du G20. Mais en réalité il n'y a pas de leadership mondial, les membres du G20 étant en désaccord en ce qui concerne la politique fiscale et budgétaire, les taux de change, les déséquilibres mondiaux, le commerce, la stabilité financière, le système monétaire international, l'énergie et la sécurité internationale. Les grandes puissances ne pensent plus parvenir à un accord gagnant-gagnant sur ces problèmes et considèrent maintenant leur résolution comme un jeu à somme nulle, autrement dit un J0 qui définit en quelque sorte le monde d'aujourd'hui.

Au 19° siècle le Royaume-Uni était la puissance hégémonique, l'Empire britannique imposait alors au nom de l'intérêt général le libre échange, la mobilité des capitaux, l'étalon-or et la livre comme principale devise constitutive des réserves mondiales. Il a été détrôné au 20° siècle par les USA qui ont imposé la Pax Americana afin de garantir la sécurité de la plus grande partie de l'Europe occidentale, de l'Asie, du Moyen-Orient et de l'Amérique latine. Les USA ont également dominé les institutions de Bretton Woods, à savoir le Fonds monétaire international, la Banque mondiale et plus tard l'Organisation mondiale du commerce, ce qui leur a permis de fixer la réglementation financière et commerciale au niveau international, tandis que le dollar est devenu la principale devise servant de réserve.

Aujourd'hui cependant "l'empire américain" connaît un problème budgétaire et ses finances sont sous tension. Par ailleurs il faut compter avec la puissance montante, la Chine, créatrice d'un modèle de capitalisme d'Etat et qui n'a rien d'une démocratie. Elle tire avantage du système mondial en ce qui concerne le commerce, les taux de change et la lutte contre le changement climatique, sans y contribuer dans le sens de l'intérêt général. Et si l'on se plaint du rôle dominant du dollar, le yuan chinois est encore loin de jouer un rôle en tant que devise servant de réserve.

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