G0世界

纽约——当今世界,从理论上讲,全球经、政治理大权握于G20手中。但实际上,全球领导力并不存在,G20内部纷扰不断,分歧严重,举凡货币与财政政策、汇率与全球经贸不平衡、气候变化、贸易、金融稳定、国际货币体系、能源、食品和全球安全问题莫不如此。说真的,各大国心里觉得这些问题是零和博弈而不是正和博弈。所以说,我们的世界本质上是个G0世界。

19世纪,英国牢牢掌握霸权,大英帝国供应全球公共品——自由贸易、资本自由流动、金本位和作为全球主要储备货币的英镑。20世纪,美国取而代之,建立美国统治下的和平(Pax Americana),向西欧、亚洲、中东和拉美的广大地域提供安全保障。美国也主宰了几个布雷顿森林机构——国际货币基金、世界银行以及后来的世界贸易组织,它为全球贸易和金融秩序定规,美元成为主要储备货币。

可是如今,美“帝国”相对衰落,财政负担过重。而中国这个崛起中的大国,不是自由民主政体,想搞国家资本主义,还是现行全球体系中的搭便车者,在贸易、汇率和气候变化问题上,不想分担提供全球公共品的责任。而且,虽然美元饱受非议,人民币还远远不是主要全球储备货币之一,更不用说主导性货币了。

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