Naše energetická budoucnost

Co se týče energie, před iráckou válkou se všechno zdálo snadné. USA svrhnou Saddáma, po krátkém období rekonstrukce se zpřístupní ohromné irácké ropné zásoby a světové ceny ropy klesnou pod 20 dolarů za barel. Místo toho se světové ceny ropy vyšplhaly na 35 dolarů za barel. Není tedy divu, že k dodávkám energií se obrací nová pozornost. Základní poučení je ale jasné: současné energetické modely jsou riskantní a musí se změnit.

V nadcházejících desetiletích budou naši hospodářskou a geopolitickou budoucnost formovat dva vzájemně související energetické problémy. Prvním je to, že závislost na ropě ze Středního východu je čím dál riskantnější. Nikdo neví, kolik ropy zbývá a kolik bude stát její dobývání, přesto během příštího čtvrtstoletí, ba dokonce snad během několika nejbližších let, bude světová produkce ropy zřejmě kulminovat. Zbývající zásoby ropy budou soustředěné v oblasti nestabilního Středního východu.

S růstem Číny, Indie, Brazílie a dalších zemí bude zároveň prudce stoupat světová poptávka po energiích. Jestliže je Střední východ v kritické situaci už teď, představme si, k čemu by mohlo dojít, pokud se soupeření o Střední východ mezi Amerikou, Evropou, Čínou, Indií, Japonskem a dalšími ještě zostří.

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