Our Double-Dip Future

NUEVA YORK – Estamos en un momento en que el abanico de de incertidumbres que afronta la economía mundial es inhabitualmente amplio. Acabamos de pasar por la peor crisis financiera desde la segunda guerra mundial. Las únicas comparaciones válidas son con la burbuja inmobiliaria japonesa, que estalló en 1991 (y de la que el Japón no se ha recuperado aún), y la Gran Depresión del decenio de 1930, con la diferencia de que esta crisis ha sido cuantitativamente mucho mayor y cualitativamente diferente.

A diferencia de la experiencia japonesa, esta crisis ha afectado al mundo entero, en lugar de mantenerse circunscrita a un solo país, y, a diferencia de la Gran Depresión, esta vez se ha puesto un apoyo para la supervivencia del sistema financiero, en lugar de dejar que se desplomara.

De hecho, la magnitud del problema actual es aún mayor que durante la Gran Depresión. En 1929, el total de crédito impagado en los Estados Unidos ascendía al 160 por ciento del PIB y subió hasta el 250 por ciento en 1932. En 2008, comenzamos con el 365 por ciento y este cálculo no incluye el extendido uso de derivados, que en el decenio de 1930 era inexistente.

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