Un avenir incertain

NEW YORK – La gamme des incertitudes auxquelles l’économie mondiale est confrontée est anormalement importante. Nous venons de traverser la pire crise financière depuis la seconde guerre mondiale. La seule comparaison possible serait avec la bulle de l’immobilier japonais de 1991 (dont le Japon ne s’est toujours pas remis) et avec la Grande Dépression des années 30, même si cette crise a été quantitativement plus importante et qualitativement différente.

Contrairement à l’expérience japonaise, cette crise est véritablement mondiale et non confinée à un seul pays. Et, contrairement à la Grande Dépression, cette fois-ci, le système financier a été artificiellement maintenu plutôt que d’avoir été autorisé à s’effondrer.

En fait, l’ampleur du problème est même plus importante que durant la Grande Dépression. En 1929, l’encours total du crédit était de 160% du PIB aux Etats-Unis et il a grimpé jusqu’à 250% en 1932. En 2008, nous avons démarré à 365% – et ce calcul ne tient pas compte de l’utilisation généralisée des dérivés, inexistants dans les années 30.

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