Dean Rohrer

مستقبل غارق في الديون

تيلبورج، هولندا ـ من المفترض في عقد الثمانينيات من القرن العشرين أن يكون الفترة التي شهدت إلقاء معدلات التضخم المرتفعة إلى مزبلة التاريخ، في حين دار عقد التسعينيات بالكامل حول ما أطلق عليه "الاقتصاد الجديد". كان ميرفين كينج محافظ بنك انجلترا قد أطلق عليه عقد "اللاتضخم والتوسع المستمر" ـ فهو الوقت الذي وصل فيه الاقتصاد إلى الأرض الموعودة حيث معدلات النمو المرتفعة واستقرار الأسعار.

أما العقد التالي فقد تبين أنه عقد "الحرب ضد الإرهاب" أولاً، ثم العقد الذي شهد أسوأ أزمة مالية واقتصادية منذ قرن كامل تقريبا ـ فهو وقت حيث شهدت كل البلدان ذات الاقتصاد المتقدم تقريباً ركوداً طويلاً عميقا.

وما زالت رحى الحرب ضد الإرهاب دائرة، ولكن نظراً للأزمة المالية والاقتصادية فمن المرجح أن نتذكر العقد الحالي بعقد الديون العامة، وفي بعض البلدان أو المناطق قد يكون حتى عقد التدهور المالي الدائم إذا لم نفعل شيئاً لتجنب هذه النتيجة المأساوية. ففي الاتحاد الأوروبي على سبيل المثال، قد ترتفع الديون العامة في أكثر بلدان منطقة اليورو والاتحاد الأوروبي أهمية إلى 100% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي أو أكثر في غضون الأعوام العشرة المقبلة وحدها.

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