迷失在转型中

华盛顿—金融市场和新闻媒体有一个共同点:它们都喜欢兴奋和抑郁之间快速切换。最明显的莫过于对新兴经济体前景的分析了。在过去几个月中,对这些国家在2008年后所体现出来的经济恢复力和增长潜力的热情已经让位给了悲观的预测,里卡多·豪斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)等经济学家宣称“新兴市场派对”已近结束。

如今,许多人相信最近的信心经济体广泛增长减速不是周期性的,而是基础性结构缺陷的反映。这一解读与前不久预测全球经济引擎发生转换、新兴和发展中经济体自主增长源泉抵消麻烦重重的发达经济体的拖累的人(包括我)形成了鲜明对比。

平心而论,后危机时期“新常态”的基础情景一直认为全球经济增长将不及2008年前的繁荣期。对主要发达经济体来说,五年前的金融危机标志着债务融资国内消费长时期的终结,这一时期的基础是来自不可持续的资产价格高估的财富效应。因此,危机导致了中国的出口拉动经济模式萎靡不振,出口拉动模式有助于提振商品价格,而商品价格的上升反过来刺激了商品出口发展中国家的GDP增长。

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