Zakuklený britský keynesián

LONDÝN – Mezi britskými finančními experty panují obavy, že ministr financí George Osborne není ke snižování veřejných výdajů ani zdaleka tak odhodlaný, jak se tváří. Stanovuje si termíny vyrovnání účtů, ale když příslušné datum nadejde a účty jsou stále nevyrovnané, jednoduše stanoví další termín.

Zamysleme se nad fiskální aritmetikou. Když se Osborne stal v roce 2010 ministrem, činil rozpočtový schodek – výdaje minus příjmy – 153 miliard liber (239 miliard dolarů) neboli 10,2% HDP. Tehdy slíbil, že do roku 2015 bude schodek dosahovat pouhých 37 miliard liber neboli 2,1% HDP – což odpovídá rovnováze běžných výdajů a příjmů. Místo toho se očekává, že schodek pro léta 2014-2015 dosáhne 97 miliard liber. Závěrečná fáze Osborneova vyrovnávání účtů byla odsunuta až na rozpočet 2019-2020.

Osborne mluví o potřebě škrtat výdaje, avšak jeho činy hovoří jinak. Ačkoliv slíbil, že do dnešního dne sníží výdaje o více než 100 miliard liber, ve skutečnosti je snížil o necelou polovinu této částky a svůj pětiletý program snižování výdajů jednoduše prodloužil o dalších několik let. V důsledku toho začíná Osborne, tato výkladní skříň britských úsporných opatření, vypadat jako zakuklený Keynesián.

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