弱者生存

东京——

随着大多数经济体开始竞相贬值,世界货币和贸易战争风险正在上升。所有人都在玩一场把幸福建立在他人痛苦之上的游戏。

今日紧张局势的根源在于全球再平衡进程的瘫痪。过度支出国——比如美国及其他“盎格鲁-撒克逊”国家——债务沉重,有着巨大的经常项目赤字,必须增加储蓄、节制国内需求消费。为了维持增长,它们需要通过货币名义和实际贬值来减少贸易赤字。但有着经常项目盈余过度储蓄国——比如中国、日本和德国——不愿意本国货币名义升值。汇率上升会减少它们的经常项目盈余,因为它们无法或无意通过增加国内消费支出来减少储蓄、维持增长。

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