China’s Imperial Overreach

May 24, 2017 Brahma Chellaney

According to a Chinese proverb, “To feed the ambition in your heart is like carrying a tiger under your arm.” The further Xi carries China’s “one belt, one road” initiative, the more likely it is to bite him.

HONG KONG – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s tenure has been marked by high ambition. His vision – the “Chinese dream” – is to make China the world’s leading power by 2049, the centenary of communist rule. But Xi may be biting off more than he can chew.

A critical element of Xi’s strategy to realize the Chinese dream is the “one belt, one road” (OBOR) initiative, whereby China will invest in infrastructure projects abroad, with the goal of bringing countries from Central Asia to Europe firmly into China’s orbit. When Xi calls it “the project of the century,” he may not be exaggerating.

In terms of scale or scope, OBOR has no parallel in modern history. It is more than 12 times the size of the Marshall Plan, America’s post-World War II initiative to aid the reconstruction of Western Europe’s devastated economies. Even if China cannot implement its entire plan, OBOR will have a significant and lasting impact.

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j. von Hettlingen May 28, 2017

Brahma Chellaney calls Xi Jinping's monumental project - the "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) initiative - an "imperial overreach." He says the Chinese leader is using the project as a vehicle for realising his "Chinese dream" ahead of 2049, which will mark the "centenary of communist rule," catapulting China to "the world's leading power." But it is 32 years away from 2049. Indeed, "even if China cannot implement its entire plan, OBOR will have a significant and lasting impact."
The initiative could turn out to be the largest ever infrastructure project with close to a trillion dollars being invested across the globe. OBOR "has no parallel in modern history. It is more than 12 times the size of the Marshall Plan." There are plans for pipelines and a port in Pakistan, bridges in Bangladesh and railways to Russia - all with the aim of creating what a “modern Silk Road.” With this trading route the Chinese leader hopes to kick start “a new era of globalisation”.
The author says Beijing harbours the ambition of bringing countries from Central Asia to Europe "firmly into China’s orbit," at a time when Trump seeks to step back from Asia. OBOR combines economic assistance with geostrategic power projection - a gambit to boost trade and stimulate growth across Asia and beyond. It would have geopolitical consequences, enhancing China' clout, giving Beijing greater leverage over its neighbours' economic future.
At home the project aims to help boost the economy of less developed border regions, like Xinjiang. It seeks to open up and create new markets in less developed countries for Chinese goods and technology at a time when the economy is slowing, while debt levels keep on rising to keep the economy expanding. Last week, China's credit rating has been cut over fears that growth in the world's second largest economy will stall in the coming years.
Although OBOR is supported by China-centric financial institutions – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New (BRICS) Development Bank, and the Silk Road Fund, many of its projects "are being pursued in vulnerable countries with speculative-grade credit ratings - face high execution risks, and could prove unprofitable." Reports point out that China's foreign-exchange reserves have fallen by about a quarter from $4 trillion in 2014.
The author, an Indian scholar is wary of China's political influence in the region. Some $62 billion will be invested in the China-Pakistan economic corridor (Cpec), a sprawling web of motorways, power plants, wind farms, factories and railways, that supporters say will spark an “economic revolution” and create up to one million jobs in Pakistan. Other high-profile schemes include a $1.1 billion port project in Sri Lanka. Both countries are in India's backyard, while Pakistan is India's arch enemy.
While some leaders welcome China's investment in their countries, others fear becoming “economic vassals”. India is suspicious of the project, saying it may well be a smokescreen, and China is using to seize strategic control of the Indian Ocean. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has accused Beijing of trying to “undermine the sovereignty of other nations” and shunned the summit in Beijing, attended by guests like Vladimir Putin, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi, to celebrate Xi Jinping's ‘Belt and Road initiative’.
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hasan zaidi May 25, 2017

@author Sir I beg to differ with the notion that we tag a strategic acquisition of foreign equity as an imperial agenda, the post modern economic criticism has always favored the western countries polarization. It is evident from the fact that the monopolistic control has been made over centuries of technological and medical advancements by developed economics using their biased patenting systems, knowing that its developing counterparts lag behind by many folds, is it not the new form of capitalism that threats equal opportunity.As fas as OBOR is concerned, it is but a revival of a more traditional and conventional trade route draped in the same attire as that of equity acquired by many Western nations in the past two centuries around the world. It is amusing that when an easter country copes with the tactics of the wester polarity of the global economy, it is seen on rather primitive and negated parameters.Even when it is the same as what America amd the United Kingdom have already been doing. Also, about the charm added to the article with the phrase "marinetime" I believe we all know what country has the largest invasive fleet and highest activity on the worlds oceans. The polarity of the global economy is bound to shift, in the decadal trends of production and acquired equity many strong players have risen, they will compete with more vigor as the markets integrate with the outcome favouring those with higher control over foreign infrastructure.
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Iain Wicking May 25, 2017

More like India can't and will never compete with the Chinese approach. In fact very few in the West understand China. They continue to view China through the limited prism of 'finance' and 'debt'. China does not compete via these attributes.
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Godfree Roberts May 24, 2017

"Xi has set his sights much higher: he aspires to become modern China’s most transformative leader."
Xi has no choice but to be transformative. Deng's mandate expires in 2020, when Reform and Opening, having achieved its aims, will end with the establishment of a xiaokang society, for the first time in China's history (Xi calls in the Chinese Dream).
It will thus be up to Xi to chart a new course for the country and Confucians already have a pretty good idea of what that will be: a datong society (the next stage after xiaokang) where nobody locks their outer doors at night.
Xi will then have two years in which to make sure that China is on course before his expected 10-year term ends.
He will also have the satisfaction of presiding over China's transition to moral leadership of the world...
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P. Kamath May 24, 2017

When a nation has deep pockets with solid cash, what can one do except sell its merchandise! Saudi Arabia promoted its toxic Wahabi Islam to smaller countries and now China with its own brand of capitalism and goods. Salivating receipients will be indebted to China and soon will become vassal states , let us say starting from president Duterte of Phillippines! What a sight of future interest free loans and cheap home entertain goods bearing the sign " Made in China" !
- shanmugham anand May 26, 2017
  
  i fully agree with you. CPEC is going to kill the entire domestic industry of pakistan.
  By staying away from OBOR, India has taken a truly spectacular foreign policy decision since 1947 after the policy of Non-alignment!
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Officeguy 2016o May 24, 2017

Anti China propaganda, there are these propaganda articles since the 90s. Being globlized doesn't mean leading. Leading comes with draggings. China's future prosper doesn't mean leading, as many other countries prosper as well.
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shanmugham anand May 24, 2017

Dear Author
We have seen soviet-style purges carried out by Xi. How do you see the domestic scenario of China? Is OBOR just a show for the sheeps back home?
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