奥运经济学

伦敦—最近几周,随着奥运狂热席卷全世界,东道国英国被罕见地推向了公众狂欢的风口浪尖。事实上,“英国队”的成功所掀起的爱国热情一点都不亚于打赢一场战争。最终,英国在金牌榜上位列第三,仅次于国家规模大得多的美国和中国,压倒了通常总是与美国竞争头把交椅的俄罗斯。

那么,奥运成功的秘诀在哪里呢?正是由于夺牌所带来的巨大满足感,使得它成了科学研究和国家努力的对象。在2012年奥运会之前,《金融时报》综合了四个经济模型,给出了金牌数量的“一致”预测(括号内位实际金牌数):1. 美国,39(44);2. 中国37(38);3. 英国,24(28);4.俄罗斯,12(21);5.韩国,12(13);6. 德国,9(11)。金牌榜和奖牌(金铜牌)总数榜的预测次序完全正确。

最令人惊奇的发现是,奖牌数量可以通过四个关键变量极其精确地被预测出来:人口、人均GDP、过去的表现以及东道主地位。所有其他因素——不同的训练结构、更好的训练设备等等,都可以归于噪音。

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