Las opciones limitadas de Ollanta Humala

BUENOS AIRES – El gran interrogante en América Latina hoy es éste: ¿el recientemente electo presidente de Perú, Ollanta Humala, orientará a su país hacia Hugo Chávez de Venezuela y sus aliados radicales? ¿O elegirá el camino que tomaron el ex presidente de Brasil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva y otros políticos moderados de la región?

El propio discurso ambiguo de Humala no sirve de mucha guía. De modo que la dirección que piensa tomar debe interpretarse a partir de sus acciones, y es poco probable que éstas sean definitivas en el corto plazo. La situación nacional e internacional de Perú, sin embargo, servirá de marco para sus principales decisiones.

Humala no es un político novato que llega a la victoria en base a carisma y suerte. En la elección presidencial de junio de 2006, obtuvo el 45,5% de los votos -no los suficientes como para derrotar a Alan García, pero bastantes como para demostrar hasta dónde había calado en las esperanzas y la confianza de muchos peruanos-. Al mismo tiempo, el populismo parecía una fuerza irrefrenable en América Latina. Alimentado por un boom petrolero y por un gigantesco gasto social, Chávez volaba alto, bendecido y respaldado por el envejecido pero todavía activo Fidel Castro.

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