Palivo ruských financí

Globální ropná situace je v současnosti obzvlášť zajímavá. Ceny se drží vysoko, kolem 30 USD za barel, ačkoliv slabé světové hospodářství znamená, že globální poptávka je nízká. Dříve módní názor, že ovládnutí iráckých ropných zásob Američany zlomí OPEC a srazí ceny, se ukázal jako nesmysl. I po zlepšení bezpečnostní situace poteče irácká ropa na plný výkon až po pěti letech. Vzhledem k tomu, že se v současnosti americká ekonomika přesvědčivě zotavuje, cena ropy by v dohledné budoucnosti měla zůstat vysoká, nebo dokonce ještě růst.

Oznámení ruského ministra financí Alexeje Kudrina, že Rusko založí ropný stabilizační fond, tedy přichází v pravou chvíli. Dobré načasování znamená, že se fond může těšit na několik let přebytků. To je jak dobrá příležitost, tak nebezpečí.

Ropný fond by měl být chápán jako nástroj makroekonomické stabilizace, oddělený od běžných toků daňových výnosů. Dnes je většina ministrů financí na světě odhodlána prosazovat vyrovnávání rozpočtu v průběhu hospodářského cyklu. Státní příjmy se nastavují tak, aby se rovnaly státním výdajům za situace, kdy ekonomika roste normálně.

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