Der Ölpreis auf seinem Marsch nach oben

IRVING, TEXAS – Bei der jüngsten OPEC-Konferenz in Wien gelang es den Saudis nicht, das Treffen unter ihre Kontrolle zu bringen. Die Produktionsobergrenzen blieben unverändert und die Mitgliedsstaaten setzen ihre eigenen Fördermengen fest. Allerdings ist es verfrüht, von einem Zerfall der OPEC zu sprechen. Schließlich hat die Organisation größere Kriege ebenso überstanden wie zahlreiche diplomatische Auseinandersetzungen und zwei große Marktzusammenbrüche. Tatsächlich besteht das Überlebensgeheimnis der OPEC nicht in ihrer Stärke, sondern in ihrer Schwäche.

Reibungen hin oder her: Die OPEC war und ist für die Marktkräfte irrelevant und wird es auch immer bleiben. Nicht die OPEC verfügte jemals über Marktmarkt, sondern nur Saudi Arabien und die saudische Marktmacht wird irrtümlicherweise immer der OPEC zugeschrieben.  

Die Saudis hatten keine Freude mit der jüngsten Konferenz. Sie entschieden sich für einen Alleingang. Können sie liefern? Die Antwort lautet: nein. Der jüngste Schritt der 28 Mitglieder umfassenden Internationalen Energieagentur, Öl aus strategischen Reserven zugänglich zu machen, ist ein Beleg dafür.

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