oil drilling James Hall/EyeEm/Getty Images

Die Folgen des Ölschocks

CAMBRIDGE – Der globale Ölmarkt ist ein volatiler Ort. Aber wenn man einmal von den kurzzeitigen Preisänderungen absieht, sind die weltweiten Durchschnittspreise für Öl (in US-Dollar gerechnet) zwischen 2012 und 2016 um etwa 60% gefallen. Wie gehen Länder wie Russland, Saudi-Arabien, Irak und Venezuela mit dem Zusammenbruch des Preises ihres wichtigsten (und in manchen Fällen einzigen) Exportartikels um?

Eine Antwort aus dem Lehrbuch wäre, dass die Regierung dauerhafte (oder sehr beständige) Rückgänge bei den Export- und Haushaltseinkünften dadurch ausgleicht, dass sie die öffentlichen Ausgaben anpasst. Und wenn der Schock nur kurzfristig ist, kann die Lösung in einer externen und fiskalen Defizitfinanzierung liegen.

Die Tabelle unten verdeutlicht die dramatischen wirtschaftlichen Folgen, die der Preiseinbruch für die Ölproduzenten hat. Für 18 dieser Länder wird die Summe der Überschüsse und Defizite im Regierungshaushalt mit der externen Leistungsbilanz verglichen – skaliert anhand des nominalen BIP. In den meisten Fällen waren 2011, vor dem Höhepunkt der Ölpreise, noch Zwillingsüberschüsse vorhanden, die sich bis 2016 in deutlich ausgeprägte Zwillingsdefizite verwandelten. Eine Veränderung in Höhe von 30 Prozentpunkten des BIP (oder mehr) ist in dieser Gruppe nicht ungewöhnlich.

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