Oil drill in field.

Prezzi del petrolio e crescita globale

CAMBRIDGE – Una delle più grandi sorprese economiche del 2015 è che lo sbalorditivo calo dei prezzi del petrolio a livello mondiale non ha dato una spinta maggiore alla crescita globale. Nonostante il crollo dei prezzi, da oltre 115 dollari al barile nel mese di giugno 2014 a 45 dollari alla fine di novembre 2015, la maggior parte dei modelli macroeconomici suggerisce che l'impatto sulla crescita globale è stato inferiore rispetto a quanto previsto - forse lo 0,5% del Pil mondiale.

La buona notizia è che questo effetto positivo ma modesto sulla crescita probabilmente non cesserà nel 2016. La cattiva notizia è che i prezzi bassi creeranno ancora maggiori tensioni sui principali paesi esportatori di petrolio.

La recente diminuzione dei prezzi del petrolio è pari al calo trainato dall’offerta nel 1985-1986, quando i membri dell'Opec (leggi: Arabia Saudita) hanno deciso di invertire i tagli alle forniture per riconquistare quote di mercato. È anche paragonabile al crollo trainato dalla domanda nel 2008-2009, a seguito della crisi finanziaria globale. Nella misura in cui i fattori della domanda generano un calo del prezzo del petrolio, non ci si aspetterebbe un impatto positivo; il prezzo del petrolio è più uno stabilizzatore automatico che una forza esogena che guida l'economia globale. Gli shock dell’offerta, invece, dovrebbero avere un significativo effetto positivo.

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