Oil drill in field.

Ölpreise und globales Wachstum

CAMBRIDGE – Eine der größten wirtschaftlichen Überraschungen des Jahres 2015 ist, dass der verblüffende Fall der Ölpreise dem globalen Wachstum keinen  größeren Schub verliehen hat. Trotz des Preiseinbruchs von über 115 US-Dollar im Juni 2014 auf 45 Dollar Ende November 2015 deuten die meisten makroökonomischen Modelle darauf hin, dass die Auswirkung auf das weltweite Wachstum geringer ist als erwartet: vielleicht 0,5% vom globalen BIP.

Die gute Nachricht ist, dass sich dieser bescheidene, aber willkommene Effekt auf das Wachstum vermutlich auch 2016 fortsetzen wird. Die schlechte Nachricht ist, dass die niedrigen Preise die Öl exportierenden Länder noch stärker unter Druck setzen werden.

Der jüngste Rückgang der Ölpreise hat dieselbe Größenordnung wie der nachfragebedingte Rückgang der Jahre 1985-1986, also die OPEC-Mitglieder (sprich: Saudi-Arabien) beschlossen, ihre Lieferreduzierungen rückgängig zu machen, um Marktanteile zurückzugewinnen. Er ist ebenfalls vergleichbar mit dem nachfragebedingten Preiszusammenbruch der Jahre 2008-2009, der auf die globale Finanzkrise folgte. Soweit ein Ölpreisrückgang durch Nachfragefaktoren bedingt ist, würde man keine größeren positiven Auswirkungen erwarten; der Ölpreis ist eher automatischer Stabilisator als eine exogene Kraft, die die Weltwirtschaft antreibt. Erschütterungen beim Angebot allerdings sollten eigentlich deutliche positive Auswirkungen haben.

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