Oil drill in field.

Mondiale groei en de olieprijzen

CAMBRIDGE – Een van de grootste economische verrassingen van 2015 is dat de verbluffende daling van de olieprijzen geen grotere stimulans voor mondiale groei is geweest. Ondanks de ineenstorting van de prijzen, van 115 dollar per vat in juni 2014 tot 45 dollar eind november 2015, suggereren de meeste macro-economische modellen dat de impact op de mondiale groei kleiner is dan verwacht: misschien 0,5% van het mondiale bbp.

Het goede nieuws is dat dit welkome maar bescheiden effect op de groei in 2016 waarschijnlijk niet zal verdwijnen. Het slechte nieuws is dat de lage olieprijzen een zelfs nog grotere druk op de grootste olie-exporterende landen zullen uitoefenen.

De recente afname van de olieprijzen is vergelijkbaar met de door aanbod gedreven daling van 1985-1986, toen leden van de OPEC (lees: Saudi-Arabië) besloten om het dichtdraaien van de oliekraan terug te draaien om marktaandeel te heroveren. Ook is deze vergelijkbaar met de door afname van de vraag gedreven ineenstorting van 2008-2009, volgend op de mondiale financiële crisis. In de zin dat vraagfactoren een daling van de olieprijs bewerkstelligen valt daar geen grote positieve impact verwachten; de olieprijs is meer een automatische stabilisator dan een externe kracht die de wereldeconomie aandrijft. Schokken in het aanbod zouden aan de andere kant een significante positieve impact moeten hebben.

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