廉价石油的地缘政治影响

美国剑桥—在过去五个月中,石油价格下跌超过25%至80美元/桶以下。如果价格维持在该水平,将对全球许多国家产生重要影响——有好也有坏。如果油价继续下跌(看起来很有可能),将给某些产油国带来巨大的地缘政治后果。

无论何时,石油价格取决于市场参与者对未来供求的预期。预期的作用使石油市场与其他市场十分不同。比如,在新鲜蔬菜市场,价格必须平衡当季收成供求平衡。相反,石油生产商和其他行业参与者可以保持低供给,只要它们认为价格会在日后上升;也可以超额供给市场,只要它们觉得价格会在日后下跌。

全球石油公司通过降低它们从地下采掘的石油量保持低供给。石油生产商还可以通过持有海上油轮或储油设施中的石油存货限制供给。反之,石油生产商可以通过增加产量或削减存货增加市场上的石油。

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