Um novo limite máximo para os preços do petróleo

LONDRES – Se há um número que determina o destino da economia mundial, esse número é o preço de um barril de petróleo. Qualquer recessão global desde 1970 foi precedida, no mínimo, por uma duplicação do preço do petróleo e cada vez que o preço do petróleo descia para metade e ficava baixo durante seis meses ou algo parecido, seguia-se uma maior aceleração do crescimento global.

Tendo caído dos 100 para os 50 dólares, o preço do petróleo está agora a pairar exactamente neste nível crítico. Então devemos esperar que os 50 dólares sejam o limite mínimo ou o máximo da nova faixa de negociação para o petróleo?

A maioria dos analistas ainda vê os 50 dólares como o limite mínimo - ou mesmo uma rampa de lançamento, porque o posicionamento nos mercados vindouros sugere  expectativas de uma recuperação bastante rápida para os 70 ou 80 dólares. Mas a economia e a História lembram que o preço actual deveria ser visto como um provável limite máximo para uma faixa de negociação muito mais baixa, a qual pode estender-se numa descida em direcção aos 20 dólares.

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