Eine neue Obergrenze für die Ölpreise

LONDON – Wenn eine Zahl das Schicksal der Weltwirtschaft bestimmt, dann ist es der Preis für ein Barrel Öl. Jeder globalen Rezession seit 1970 ging ein Anstieg des Ölpreises auf mindestens das Doppelte vorweg, und jedes Mal, wenn der Ölpreis um die Hälfte fiel und für etwa sechs Monate niedrig blieb, folgte eine deutliche Erholung der Weltkonjunktur.

Der Ölpreis ist inzwischen von 100 US-Dollar auf 50 US-Dollar gefallen und hält sich derzeit auf genau diesem kritischen Niveau. Sollten wir also davon ausgehen, das 50 Dollar die Unter- oder die Obergrenze der neuen Handelsspanne für Öl sein werden?

Die meisten Analysten betrachten 50 Dollar noch immer als Untergrenze – oder sogar als Sprungbrett, denn die Positionierungen auf den Terminmärkten legen Erwartungen einer relativ raschen Erholung auf 70 oder 80 Dollar nahe. Doch Wirtschaftslehre und Geschichte legen nahe, dass man den derzeitigen Preis als vermutliche Obergrenze einer viel niedrigeren Handelsspanne betrachten sollte, die bis zu einem Tiefstwert von 20 Dollar reichen könnte.

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