油价的新顶部

伦敦—如果说有一个数字能左右世界经济的命运,那就是每桶石油的价格。自20世纪70年代以来,每一次全球衰退前都会出现一次油价至少翻番,并且每一次油价都会腰斩并在低位徘徊六个月左右,然后是全球增长的大提速。

如今,油价从100美元跌至50美元,已徘徊在这一临界水平左右。那么,50美元的价格将成为油价新波动区间的底部还是顶部?

大部分分析师仍认为50美元是底部——甚至是“钻石底”,因为期货市场的状况表明人们预期油价会快速反弹至70或80美元。但经济学和历史学告诉我们,今天的价格或许应该被视为更低的交易区间的顶部,油价可能一路探底,向20美元靠拢。

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