Los próximos dictadores petroleros que caerán

LONDRES – Variaciones de precios tan grandes y rápidas como las que vienen alterando el mercado del petróleo desde junio de 2014 no pueden sino perjudicar a algunos y beneficiar a otros. Generalmente se habla más de los perjuicios, pero los beneficios son igual de importantes, o más. El 70% de caída del precio del barril de crudo representa una colosal transferencia de 3 billones de dólares de ingresos anuales de los productores de petróleo a los consumidores.

De modo que aunque la turbulencia bursátil y el abaratamiento del petróleo (y otros commodities) hayan alentado oscuras predicciones de otra recesión global, es probable que resulten excesivamente pesimistas y erradas. Es verdad que la dramática caída del precio del petróleo dejará a su paso ganadores y perdedores. Pero los mayores riesgos son políticos, no económicos.

El mejor indicador de los cambios de suerte tal vez sean las tarjetas de embarque de los funcionarios del Fondo Monetario Internacional. En vez de ir a Atenas, ahora su destino es Bakú. De hecho, las dictaduras petroleras de Asia central, entre ellas Azerbaiyán, están entre los países más golpeados por la caída de precios, sobre todo porque, como estados exsoviéticos, aún dependen en gran medida del comercio con Rusia, otro productor de petróleo.

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