Öldiktatoren wie Dominosteine

LONDON – Preisbewegungen von der Größenordnung und Geschwindigkeit, wie sie die Ölmärkte seit Juni 2014 auf den Kopf gestellt haben, führen immer dazu, dass einige leiden und andere profitieren. Obwohl das Leid in der Regel die meiste Aufmerksamkeit auf sich zieht, sind die Vorteile nicht weniger wichtig – wenn nicht sogar wichtiger. Der 70%ige Rückgang beim Preis eines Barrels Rohöl spiegelt eine riesige Umschichtung von drei Billionen Jahreseinkommen von den Ölproduzenten zu den Ölverbrauchern wider.

Daher dürften sich, auch wenn fallende Aktienmärkte und ein weiterer Rückgang der Ölpreise (und auch anderer Rohstoffpreise) eine Menge Gerede über eine weitere globale Rezession ausgelöst haben, die düsteren Prognosen vermutlich als überzogen und fehlgeleitet erweisen. Sicher wird der dramatische Rückgang beim Ölpreis Gewinner und Verlierer hervorbringen. Doch die größten Gefahren werden politischer und nicht wirtschaftlicher Art sein.

Diese Veränderung lässt sich vielleicht am besten an den unternommenen Flügen von Vertretern des Internationalen Währungsfonds erkennen: Statt nach Athen sind diese nun nach Baku unterwegs. Tatsächlich gehören die Öl produzierenden Diktaturen Zentralasiens, darunter Aserbaidschan, zu den Ländern, die am stärksten vom Rückgang der Ölpreise betroffen sind – insbesondere weil sie als ehemalige Mitglieder der Sowjetunion weiterhin stark vom Handel mit Russland abhängig sind, einem weiteren Ölproduzenten.

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