L'effet domino chez les dictateurs du pétrole

LONDRES – Des variations de prix aussi importantes et aussi rapides que celles qui bouleversent les marchés pétroliers depuis juin 2014 vont sûrement faire le malheur de certaines personnes et faire le bonheur des autres. Bien que le malheur ait tendance à attirer davantage l'attention, le bonheur est tout aussi important, sinon plus. La chute de 70% sur le prix du baril de pétrole représente un transfert colossal de 3 mille milliards de dollars de recettes annuelles des producteurs de pétrole vers les consommateurs de pétrole.

Ainsi, alors que les marchés boursiers sont très instables et qu'une nouvelle baisse du prix du pétrole (et des autres matières premières) suscitent de nombreuses discussions autour d'une nouvelle récession mondiale, ces sombres prédictions pourraient bien s'avérer trop sombres et attribuées à mauvais escient. La chute spectaculaire du prix du pétrole aura sans aucun doute ses gagnants et ses perdants. Mais les plus grands dangers seront politiques, pas économiques.

Le déplacement de fortunes est peut-être plus visible sur les cartes d'embarquement des fonctionnaires du Fonds Monétaire International. Plutôt que de se rendre à Athènes, ils embarquent maintenant pour Bakou. En effet, les dictatures des producteurs de pétrole de l'Asie centrale, notamment de l'Azerbaïdjan, ont été parmi les pays les plus durement touchés par la baisse des prix (surtout parce que, comme les anciens États soviétiques, ils restent fortement dépendants du commerce avec la Russie, un autre pays producteur de pétrole.

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