Dominoes

石油独裁者的多米诺骨牌

发自伦敦——自2014年6月起这种彻底颠覆了原油市场的大起大落走势肯定会导致有家欢喜有家愁。虽然受害者往往会赢得最多关注,但受益者也同样重要——而且理应得到更多关注。原油价格每桶下跌了70%意味着有3兆美元的巨额年度收入从石油生产商那转移到了消费者的口袋里。

于是乎,虽然股票市场暴跌和石油 (及其他大宗商品) 价格的进一步下跌引发了众多关于另一场全球经济衰退会否爆发的讨论,但这些可怕的预言有可能最终会被证明是过于悲观且误导性的。油价的急剧下跌当然会产生赢家和输家,但最大的输赢将是政治上的,而非经济方面。

财富的转移也许可以在国际货币基金组织官员的登机牌上找到一点端倪。他们没有飞去雅典,而是前往阿塞拜疆首都巴库。事实上,中亚地区的石油独裁政权,包括阿塞拜疆在内,是受到油价下跌冲击最大的群体——尤其是因为身为前苏联加盟共和国,他们的贸易仍然严重依赖俄罗斯,而后者也是个产油国。

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