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Hikmah di Balik Rendahnya Harga Minyak bagi Negara-negara Teluk

BEIRUT – Pada bulan Juni 2014, satu barel minyak Brent – acuan utama yang digunakan dalam pasar minyak internasional – dijual dengan harga $115. Sekarang, dua tahun setelahnya, harga per barel adalah $45, bahkan lebih rendah. Tentu tidak mengejutkan bahwa akhirnya kebobrokan ini menimbulkan guncangan besar bagi Arab Saudi dan negara lain di kawasan Teluk yang dipimpin oleh sheikh, ketika 85% pendapatan mereka diperoleh melalui dependensi atas minyak. Mereka perlu menyadari bahwa berbeda dengan penurunan harga minyak di masa lampau, kejadian ini bukan sekedar peralihan, melainkan kondisi permanen.

Situasi normal baru (a new normal) yang menimpa sektor minyak menunjukkan realita baru. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina – serta permintaan atas minyak – akan berkurang; efisiensi energi secara global akan meningkat, terutama karena komitmen yang dibuat pada konferensi perubahan iklim di Paris bulan Desember lalu; dan inovasi terobosan di bidang minyak dan gas shale, serta sumber-sumber energi terbarukan, menjadikan keduanya jauh lebih kompetitif. Dengan bangkitnya Iran, Libya, dan Irak sebagai pengekspor minyak terbesar, rendahnya harga minyak menjadi sesuatu yang tidak dapat dihindari dan tahan lama.

Arab Saudi dan negara-negara Teluk lainnya tidak boleh menyia-nyiakan krisis ini. mereka harus mengambil kesempatan emas ini untuk menjalankan reformasi perekonomian yang komprehensif.

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