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Nízká cena ropy v Zálivu aneb všechno zlé je k něčemu dobré

BEJRÚT – V červnu 2014 byl barel ropy Brent – hlavní srovnávací ukazatel na mezinárodním trhu s ropou – prodáván za $115. Dnes, méně než dva roky poté, je cena $45 – nebo dokonce méně. Není překvapivé, že tento kolaps by obrovským šokem pro Saudskou Arábii a šejchství v Zálivu, které na ropu spoléhají ve zhruba 85% jejich příjmů. A také není překvapivé, že si musí uvědomit, že na rozdíl od poklesů cen z minulosti, tento nebude přechodný.

Tato “nová norma“ pro ropu reflektuje novou realitu: ekonomický růst Číny – a stejně tak její poptávka po ropě – je předurčen k poklesu; světová energetická efektivita poroste, v neposlední řadě kvůli závazkům z prosincové klimatické konferenci v Paříži; a inovace, které činí břidlicový olej a plyn, současně s obnovitelnými zdroji energie, mnohem konkurenceschopnější. Díky návratu Íránu, Libye a Iráku, jakožto hlavních exportérů ropy, musí být nízké ceny ropy jak nevyhnutelné, tak trvalé.

Saudská Arábie a další státy Zálivu by neměli tuto krizi ignorovat. Mají nyní skvělou příležitost konečně provést komplexní ekonomické reformy.

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