oil AFP/Getty Images

低油价给波斯湾带来的福音

贝鲁特—2014年6月,一桶布伦特原油——国际石油市场的主要基准——卖115美元。如今,不到两年后,其价格是45美元——甚至更低。毫不奇怪,如此暴跌对沙特阿拉伯和波斯湾产油国造成了沉重打击,它们85%的收入要依靠石油。它们需要意识到,和过去的价格下跌不同,这次下跌不是暂时性的。

这一石油“新常态”反映了新现实:中国经济增长——及其石油需求——必然将下降;因为12月的气候变化巴黎大会的承诺,世界能源效率将提高;而破坏性创新正在大大提高页岩油气和可再生能源资源的竞争力。随着伊朗、利比亚、伊拉克重新成为主要石油出口国,低油价显然是不可避免并将长期持续的。

沙特阿拉伯和其他波斯湾国家不应该浪费这次危机。它们现在拥有一次最终实施全面经济改革的完美机会。

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