

From semiconductors to electric vehicles, governments are identifying the strategic industries of the future and intervening to support them – abandoning decades of neoliberal orthodoxy in the process. Are industrial policies the key to tackling twenty-first-century economic challenges or a recipe for market distortions and lower efficiency?
发自剑桥—中国需求的上下变化助长了今年国际油价的波动。但供给侧的最新事态演变将产生远超石油市场之外的直接地缘政治和金融影响。具体来说就是沙特已重新成为最重要的摇摆产油者(swing producer)并以此化身最具影响力的边际价格制定者。但这种情况能持续多久还不好说。
中国对油价的需求侧影响无需赘述。这个国土面积广大的国家有着广泛的能源需求和高强度应用,同时严重依赖外部供应。而随着中国当局根据其新冠清零政策不时实施和解除封锁,今年由中国带动的价格影响变得尤为难以预测。
而供给侧的价格决定因素构成则远没有那么稳定,也使其与需求效应的拉锯战变得更加耐人寻味。为了理解这种新出现的动态,我们可以回顾一下石油市场的主导影响因素在过去15年间是如何变化的。
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