对石油货币的伪善

剑桥-在布什政府抨击亚洲国家不让其货币对美元更快升值的同时,美国财政部长汉克·鲍尔森访问中东支持该地区牢固的盯住美元汇率制度有意义吗?不幸的是,这个明显的矛盾源自美国持续脆弱的经济和财政状况而不是要反映任何强行性的经济逻辑。美国应该支持国际货币基金组织推进石油货币和美元脱钩的幕后努力,而不应该像鲍尔森那样推进这些货币盯住美元。

或许布什政府担心如果石油国家抛弃美元标准,美元现在的弱势可能会转变成崩溃。但是,美国应该更加担心推进加快调整仍在扩大的贸易逆差的措施,这在许多方面是最近的次级抵押贷款危机爆发的根源。布什政府多管齐下延缓美国消费者痛苦的努力,包括超级简单的货币和财政政策,只会导致在不远的将来产生更大的危机的风险。不难想象,在2009初期,在下一任美国总统就职后不久,整个策略就会自食其果。

当然,加强石油货币(不仅包括海湾地区国家,而且也包括其他中东国家和俄罗斯)不会使美国的贸易收支一夜逆转。但是石油国家确实占世界贸易顺差相当大的份额,并且即使在短期内,弱势美元都可以在一定程度上帮助促进美国的出口。

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