El preocupante final de juego de Obasanjo

En la Nigeria actual, la pregunta fundamental no es la de si el Presidente Olusegun Obasanjo se retirará después de que expire su segundo (y último) mandato el año que viene, sino la de quién lo sucederá. En vista de la historia de dictaduras militares inamovibles de Nigeria, se trata de un auténtico progreso. Por desgracia, no es necesariamente obra del Presidente.

Los intentos por parte de los partidarios de Obasanjo de convencer a la Asamblea Nacional para que enmendara la Constitución a fin de que Obasanjo pudiera continuar en su cargo después de dos mandatos chocaron con un sólido muro de oposición. Las actividades gubernamentales y comerciales quedaron virtualmente paralizadas esta primavera cuando los activistas en pro de la democracia, en alianza con políticos y legisladores opuestos a un tercer mandado, lucharon contra los aliados de Obasanjo para desbaratar esa propuesta de ley.

El fracaso de los partidarios de Obasanjo desencadenó tres desarrollos políticos. La autoridad del Presidente se está agotando precipitadamente y su férreo control de su Partido Democrático Popular (PDP) se ha aflojado. Los partidos de oposición, los grupos de derechos humanos y otros críticos del gobierno, hasta ahora intimidados por un Obasanjo y una máquina del PDP aparentemente omnipotentes, han cobrado nuevas fuerzas. Obasanjo, asediado e irritado por que sus amigos en su país y en el extranjero (en particular en los Estados Unidos y en Europa) lo traicionaran ayudando a sus oponentes políticos para que no se aprobase la enmienda, está decidido a ajustar cuentas.

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