奥巴马经济学:执政第一年的盘点与展望

伯克利 —— 美国总统贝拉克·奥巴马执政满一年了,这是经济上很困难的一年。他的前任留下一个烂摊子 —— 金融体系濒临崩溃,国民经济陷入衰退,失业率攀升已成定局。而且,他所要面对的那个国会和经济学界似乎分不清,什么是真正的魔鬼,什么是想象的灾难。

奥巴马的强项是该妥协时就妥协,见好就收。他的 7870 亿美元财政刺激方案整体上说是好的。它固然也有种种缺陷,比如对衰退的深度、复苏的力度和失业率所可能达到的水平估计得过于乐观;比如过于依赖减税,结果是促进储蓄大于促进消费;再比如没有配合出台可靠的中期财政策略,毫无必要地让财政崩溃论的鼓吹者着实兴奋了一番。尽管如此,这一揽子刺激方案的确给美国经济打了一针救命的强心针。

奥巴马稳定银行体系的措施也还算成功,尽管它留下了许多遗憾:我原本希望,资本注入的力度能够更大一些,总统能够运用权力,炒掉那些应该为金融危机的爆发负首要责任的金融高管。

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