Change in Private Sector Employment (2008-2012)

La ripresa di Obama?

CAMBRIDGE – Con le elezioni americane di novembre alle porte, i candidati repubblicani che tentano di sfidare il presidente Barack Obama affermano che le sue politiche non hanno fatto nulla per sostenere la ripresa dalla recessione che lui stesso aveva ereditato nel gennaio del 2009. Anzi – sostengono – i suoi stimoli fiscali, i salvataggi bancari e l’aggressiva politica monetaria attuata dal presidente della Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke avrebbero peggiorato la situazione.

I sostenitori democratici di Obama replicano che le sue politiche hanno evitato una seconda Grande Depressione, e che l’economia americana si sta lentamente tirando fuori dal baratro in cui era caduta. Gli osservatori moderati, invece, concludono dicendo che non si può intavolare alcun dibattito, perché nessuno sa cosa sarebbe successo se le cose fossero andate diversamente.

Bisogna però ammettere che le politiche governative – per quanto non siano state abbastanza forti da riportare rapidamente l’economia in salute – hanno effettivamente frenato un declino economico in espansione. Gli osservatori moderati hanno ragione a sostenere che non si può provare ciò che sarebbe successo in altre condizioni. È altrettanto vero che raramente le politiche governative hanno un immediato impatto sull’economia.

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