Change in Private Sector Employment (2008-2012)

Obamas Erholung?

CAMBRIDGE – Die Wahlen in den Vereinigten Staaten im November rücken immer näher und die republikanischen Herausforderer von Präsident Barack Obama behaupten, seine Politik hätte nichts zur Erholung von der Rezession beigetragen, die er im Januar 2009 geerbt hat. Wenn überhaupt, so seine Kontrahenten, hätten seine Konjunkturprogramme, die Bankenrettungen und die aggressive Geldpolitik von US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke die Lage nur verschlimmert.

Obamas Unterstützer aus den Reihen der Demokratischen Partei halten dagegen, seine Politik habe eine zweite Große Depression abgewendet und die US-Wirtschaft arbeite sich seither kontinuierlich aus einem tiefen Loch heraus. Beobachter der politischen Mitte kommen typischerweise zu dem Schluss, dass die Debatte nicht abschließend zu klären ist, weil man nicht wissen kann, was andernfalls geschehen wäre.

Es spricht einiges dafür, dass die Regierungspolitik zwar nicht wirkungsvoll genug war, die Wirtschaft rasch wieder gesunden zu lassen, den zunehmenden wirtschaftlichen Niedergang aber tatsächlich aufgehalten hat. Die Beobachter aus der Mitte haben allerdings recht damit, dass nicht zu beweisen ist, was anderenfalls geschehen wäre. Ebenso richtig ist, dass sich Regierungspolitik selten sofort erheblich auf die Wirtschaft auswirkt.

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