Obamas Naher Osten

JERUSALEM – Die Pläne des designierten Präsidenten Barack Obama für den Nahen Osten – der Region, in der die Politik seines Vorgängers Amerikas Ansehen als freundliche Supermacht in der ganzen Welt zerstört hat – stellen einen willkommenen Abschied von Präsident Bushs großem Vorhaben dar, die Übel der Region durch „konstruktives Chaos“ beheben. Bedauerlicherweise könnten sich Obamas allumfassende Versprechen als ebenso unrealistisch herausstellen.

Obamas Agenda ist atemberaubend. Sie umfasst die Befreiung aus dem irakischen Morast und damit die Entlastung der amerikanischen Außenpolitik, die Lösung des schwärenden israelisch-palästinensischen Konflikts bei gleichzeitiger Konfrontation der eher aggressiven Israel-Lobby, die Eindämmung der nuklearen Ambitionen des Iraks und die Abbringung Syriens von seiner radikalen Agenda durch Dialog – wodurch die „Achse des Bösen“ in der Region (Iran-Syrien-Hisbollah-Hamas) aufgelöst würde – die Befreiung des Libanons aus den Klauen Syriens und das Drängen auf einen Frieden zwischen Israel und Syrien. Und dem kann man eine Neuorientierung der militärischen Bemühungen Amerikas im Krieg in Afghanistan hinzufügen.

Die Größenordnung dieser Agenda muss vor dem Hintergrund des deprimierenden Erbes der Region betrachtet werden. Die gesamte Region durchläuft einen gefährlichen Prozess der „Somaliasierung“, mit einer länger werdenden Kette nichtstaatlicher Akteure, zumeist radikal islamistischer Gruppen, die die Idee des Staates fast überall auf die Probe stellen.

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