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奥巴马在古巴

墨西哥城—即将到来的奥巴马访问古巴之行毫无疑问是一个历史时刻,它将标志着88年以来首位美国总统踏上古巴的土地。但最高级的字眼远不如务实地看待奥巴马的这一强化后遗症(legacy-enhancing)的动作的实际影响有用——不管是对美国还是对古巴。

事实上,务实主义是奥巴马的古巴方针的主要特征。他承认从1960年开始实施的贸易禁运并没有让古巴加强人权保护,更没有让它转向民主。因此,奥巴马务实地——也许还带着一些犬儒主义——决定放弃强迫古巴领导人改变政治制度的努力。毕竟,如果美国要求古巴采取政治开放,甚至要求古巴政府略微尊重一些人权,以此作为两国外交关系正常化的前提,那么两国将仍然处于僵局之中。

然而,尽管奥巴马可能是在通过追求无条件正常化——所谓的“立约”(engagement)——留下他自己的光辉遗产,但他并没有保证古巴发生任何实际变化。说到底,“立约”只不过是一套说辞。

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