Obama a metà del guado

NEW YORK – Nel settembre del 2008 l'economia globale ed il sistema finanziario sono stati scossi da un terremoto il cui epicentro era negli Stati Uniti. Era la fine dell'amministrazione Bush: l'elezione presidenziale era a due mesi di distanza. La tempistica, dal punto di vista della gestione della crisi, non sarebbe potuta essere peggiore.

Il livello d'incertezza sul valore degli assets, sulla solvibilità e sull'interdipendenza tra i bilanci che prevaleva allora era straordinariamente alto. L'incertezza causò paura, inducendo banche, imprese e famiglie ad accumulare liquidità. I consumi crollarono, affossando le vendite al dettaglio, e, subito dopo, anche occupazione e investimenti. Scelte individualmente razionali stavano generando risultati collettivamente irrazionali.

Queste condizioni avevano tutta l'aria di uno scenario da depressione economica, con una stretta creditizia che distruggeva indiscriminatamente tutte le attività economiche, e quindi richiedeva una risposta rapida, aggressiva e anticonvenzionale da parte del governo americano e della Federal Reserve. La risposta, preparata dall'amministrazione Bush e portata avanti dall'amministrazione Obama, rispondeva esattamente a questi requisiti.

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