ramberg17_Anadolu Agency_Getty Images_incirlik

Las armas nucleares en zonas de conflicto civil

Sep 7, 2016 Bennett Ramberg

LOS ANGELES – El reciente golpe militar fallido en Turquía ha generado inestabilidad, paranoia y la persecución de todos aquellos de quienes se sospeche que se oponen al régimen, entre ellos muchos periodistas. Afortunadamente los sublevados no se apoderaron de algunas de las decenas de armas nucleares que existen en la Base Aérea turca de Incirlik, desde la que despegaron los aviones rebeldes. ¿Pero qué pasará la próxima vez?

Las nueve potencias nucleares mundiales plantean que no hay que preocuparse demasiado: la combinación de protección física con, en la mayoría de los casos, salvaguardas electrónicas (enlaces a acciones de permiso, o PAL, por sus siglas en inglés) implica que sus arsenales seguirían siendo seguros incluso si se almacenan o instalan en países asolados por la violencia.

Robert Peurifoy, ex ingeniero sénior de armas nucleares en los Sandia National Laboratories, no está de acuerdo. Hace poco declaró a Los Angeles Times que esos dispositivos de seguridad (cuyas versiones anteriores ayudó a diseñar) solo pueden retrasar el uso de los terroristas de las armas nucleares de las que se apoderen. “O se tienen bajo custodia, o nos tendremos que ir preparando para una nube nuclear”.

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Turkey’s Baffling Coup
Ozan Kose/Stringer

Turkey’s Baffling Coup

Dani Rodrik expects the failed putsch to result in massive purges and further erosion of the rule of law.

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The New Loose Nukes
lairdscott/Flickr

The New Loose Nukes

Bennett Ramberg highlights the vulnerability of nuclear assets in volatile countries.

5
Managing North Korea’s Collapse
Kcna/Xinhua/ZumaPress

Managing North Korea’s Collapse

Kent Harrington & Bennett Ramberg urge China, South Korea, and the US to plan ahead – before events in Pyongyang force their hands.

4
Better THAAD than Dead
Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

Better THAAD than Dead

Richard Weitz warns that the alternative to missile defense in Northeast Asia is nuclear weapons.

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j. von Hettlingen Sep 10, 2016

Bennett Ramberg says the failed coup attempt in Turkey last July raised fear over the safety of America's nuclear arms stored at Incirlik Air Base. Questions were asked whether it was wise to store the biggest nuclear stockpile in Europe at such a vulnerable site - some 68 miles from the Syrian border. The author says it could have fallen into the wrong hands, given "the potential terrorist threat to the base. " He asks, "what about next time?"
The Incirlik Air Base was subsequently closed and power supply cut off, because the Turkish government claimed that some of the coup plotters were stationed there and flew aircraft out of the shared base. The airfield from which the US regularly flies sorties against the ISIS in Syria is not the only place where nuclear weapons are stored. Together with Turkey, Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands are the five NATO nuclear-sharing states.
So far the arsenal in Incirlik is still safe. But as the security situation there no longer meets the safety requirements that the US should have for storage of nuclear weapons, many are calling for their removal. Although the world’s nine nuclear powers - The US, Russia, the UK, France, China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Israel - "claim that there is little to worry about," only five out of nine have legally recognised nuclear weapons. But they all "argue that the combination of physical protection and, in most cases, electronic safeguards (permissive action links, or PALs) means that their arsenals would remain secure, even if countries where they are stored or deployed were engulfed by violence." Yet the author has his doubts about North Korea and Pakistan.
According to the author, in China and Russia, "which rely increasingly on authoritarianism," their nuclear stockpile could pose security risks, "should political cohesion fray." While there is a serious and growing threat in the politically fragile Pakistan, where the intersection of Islamist terrorism and nuclear proliferation is nowhere more obvious, the "volatile and mercurial regime" in North Korea, has "stoked opposition" due to Kim Jong-un's brutal purge. This could lead to a nuclear coup or a nuclear civil war, if the top brass are fed up with the young, unruly leader, who pursues policies contrary to their interests. Food shortages could lead to unrest and topple the regime.
The author proposes a plan to degrade the nuclear capabilities of North Korea and Pakistan, like identifying their nuclear sites and launching airstrikes, following Israel's example in Iraq and Syria years ago.
Another option is to invade and occupy North Korea or Pakistan, which "would require massive armies risking a bitter conventional war and possible use of the weapons against the invaders." The third option is "nuclear containment, " which is tangible, as it "relies on several measures" to prevent nuclear "migration" , smuggling activities and foster vigilance.
"In a time of crisis, when the facts on the ground change fast and fear clouds thinking, mitigating the nuclear threat is no easy feat." Although the destruction of Nagasaki and Hiroshima would discourage warfare between states that possess nuclear weapons, there is always the risk of serious accidents. And there are terrorists who - teemed with hatred - want to lay their hands on the most dangerous machines ever invented, without knowing they they are extremely difficult to manage, for reasons both technical and administrative. Terrorists are often suicide bombers, who are ready to destroy the whole world including themselves. It is a scary idea that shouldn't be swept under the rug.
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Michael Public Sep 8, 2016

Why are there US nukes in Turkey is another question that needs answering.
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Las armas nucleares en zonas de conflicto civil

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Turkey’s Baffling Coup

The New Loose Nukes

Managing North Korea’s Collapse

Better THAAD than Dead

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