Tehran Iran military missile truck ahmad halabisaz/ZumaPress

Comment l’Iran est en train de remporter la partie

TEL AVIV – En 2003, les États-Unis – qui aux côtés de leurs alliés de l’OTAN occupaient d’ores et déjà l’Afghanistan – renversaient le gouvernement irakien de Saddam Hussein et écrasaient son armée. Inquiets de se retrouver encerclés, les dirigeants iraniens n’allaient pas tarder à proposer de négocier avec l’Occident autour d’un ensemble de problématiques majeures, allant du développement d’armes nucléaires – l’Iran stoppera en effet son programme nucléaire militaire – à la question de la sécurité régionale, faisant intervenir le processus de paix israélo-palestinien ainsi que le soutien du pays au Hezbollah et au Hamas.

Le récent accord-cadre relatif au programme nucléaire iranien a précisément engendré l’effet inverse. Bien que cet accord ralentisse effectivement le développement d’armes nucléaires par l’Iran, il ne limite en rien – et n’aborde tout simplement pas – les ambitions hégémoniques du régime dans la région, qui ont d’ores et déjà coûté au pays plusieurs milliards de dollars, sans parler de la souffrance liée aux sanctions. Ainsi l’accord-cadre vient-il instaurer un chaos stratégique au sein d’une région déjà dysfonctionnelle. Un scénario futur dans lequel des puissances régionales telles que la Turquie, l’Égypte et l’Arabie saoudite (qui collabore étroitement avec le Pakistan sur le front nucléaire) franchiraient le seuil des capacités nucléaires est aujourd’hui plus plausible que jamais.   

Il s’agit d’une période de gloire pour l’Iran. Après plusieurs décennies d’isolement diplomatique et de sanctions économiques, voici que son statut d’État dit « du seuil nucléaire » se trouve légitimé à l’échelle internationale. Qui plus est, l’Iran parvient à conduire l’Amérique à abandonner son rêve de changement de régime, la contraignant à coexister – voire à échanger – avec une théocratie islamique qu’elle considère répugnante.

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