A Hora Zero do Desarmamento Nuclear

CAMBERRA – No mês passado, os ponteiros do Relógio do Juízo Final foram movidos para um minuto mais perto das zero horas pelo Boletim dos Cientistas Atómicos, a respeitada organização global que durante décadas tem rastreado o risco de uma catástrofe com armas nucleares, quer causada acidental ou intencionalmente, por um estado ou por terroristas, por bombas de fissão ou por bombas radiológicas sujas.

Poucos à volta do mundo pareceram ouvir. A história – como outras similares desde o fim da Guerra Fria – foi e veio durante um ciclo noticioso de meio-dia. Mas o raciocínio dos Cientistas é reflectido, e exige atenção. O progresso desde 2007 – quando os ponteiros do relógio foram colocados a cinco minutos da meia-noite – tem estagnado, e a liderança política tem estado ausente em todos os temas críticos: desarmamento, não proliferação, e os pilares básicos necessários para ambos.

Relativamente ao desarmamento, o balão foi bem esvaziado. O novo tratado START, assinado pelos Estados Unidos e pela Rússia em 2010, reduziu o número de armas estratégicas posicionadas, mas deixou intacta a capacidade armazenada em ambos os lados, deixou imperturbado o seu elevado estado de alerta, manteve em curso programas de modernização de armamento, deixou por resolver desacordos sobre defesa contra mísseis e desequilíbrios entre forças convencionais – e promoveu conversações para reduções posteriores que não levaram a lado algum.

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