De nuevo las burbujas inmobiliarias

NUEVA YORK – Existe un consenso generalizado en el sentido de que el desinflarse de una serie de burbujas inmobiliarias desencadenó la crisis financiera mundial de 2008-2009, junto con la grave recesión que siguió. Aunque el caso mejor conocido es el de los Estados Unidos, la combinación de unas laxas reglamentación y supervisión de bancos y una política de tipos de interés bajos alimentó burbujas similares en el Reino Unido, España, Irlanda, Islandia y Dubái.

Ahora, cinco años después, en los mercados inmobiliarios de Suiza, Suecia, Noruega, Finlandia, Francia, Alemania, el Canadá, Australia, Nueva Zelanda y –de nuevo un bis– el Reino Unido (en fin, Londres) están reapareciendo señales de espuma, ya que no de burbujas del todo formadas. Sin embargo, en los mercados en ascenso, están apareciendo burbujas en Hong Kong, Singapur, China e Israel y en los más importantes centros urbanos de Turquía, la India, Indonesia y el Brasil.

Entre las señales de que los precios de la vivienda en dichas economías están entrando en territorio de burbuja, figuran unos precios de la vivienda en rápido aumento, unas relaciones elevadas y en aumento entre los precios de la vivienda y los ingresos y altos niveles de deuda hipotecaria como porcentaje de la deuda de las familias. En la mayoría de las economías avanzadas, unos bajos tipos de interés a corto y a largo plazo están inflando las burbujas. En vista del anémico crecimiento del PIB, del abundante desempleo y la escasa inflación, un gran volumen de liquidez creado por la relajación monetaria ortodoxa y heterodoxa está haciendo subir los precios de los activos, empezando por los de la vivienda.

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