Le retour des bulles immobilières

NEW YORK – Il est aujourd’hui généralement admis que la série d’effondrements des bulles dans l’immobilier est à l’origine de la crise financière de 2008-2009, ainsi que de la sévère récession qui s’en est suivi. Les Etats-Unis constituent le cas le mieux connu, mais l’association d’une supervision et de règlementations laxistes des banques à des taux directeurs faibles a entrainé des bulles comparables en Grande-Bretagne, en Espagne, en Irlande, en Islande et à Dubaï.

Cinq ans plus tard, des signes de volatilité, et mêmes de réelles bulles apparaissent dans les différents marchés de l’immobilier en Suisse, en Suède, en Norvège, en Finlande, en France, en Allemagne, au Canada, en Australie, en Nouvelle Zélande, et encore une fois, en Grande-Bretagne (enfin, Londres). Dans les marchés émergents, les bulles sont visibles à Hong Kong, à Singapore, en Chine, et en Israël, et dans les principaux centres urbains en Turquie, en Inde, en Indonésie et au Brésil.

Parmi les signes de réapparition de bulles immobilières dans ces économies, on peut noter la hausse rapide des prix immobiliers, un rapport entre les prix et les revenus élevé et en hausse, et la part croissante du crédit immobilier dans l’endettement des ménages. Dans la plupart des économies avancées, les bulles sont encouragées par des taux d’intérêt à court et long terme particulièrement faibles. Compte tenu d’une croissance anémique du PIB, d’un chômage élevé et d’une inflation faible, le mur de liquidités généré par les facilités monétaires conventionnelles et non conventionnelles entraine une hausse des prix des actifs, à commencer par le prix des logements.

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